Research Projects


Development of innovative satellite-based methods for improved PV yield forecast on different time scales for applications at the distribution network level

Partners Fraunhofer ISE, Hochschule Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Universität Heidelberg, Pädagogische Hochschule, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Universität Leipzig, Unternehmensverbund Allgäuer Überlandwerk GmbH, egrid applications & consulting GmbH, AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG
Duration 01.11.2017 - 28.02.2021
Researchers Markus Kraiczy, Kevin Winter


By 2050, as part of the energy transition, the share of renewable energy sources in Germany is expected to increase to 80 % of gross electricity consumption. This requires a more effective adaptation of grid management to the increased weather dependence of power supply. In particular, the decentralized feed-in of electricity from photovoltaic systems presents distribution system operators with new challenges in terms of grid expansion, grid operation and market integration.
A detailed, location-accurate calculation of the irradiation enables the exploitation of optimization potentials for voltage maintenance and reactive power compensation by an improved forecast. In this context, Fraunhofer ISE was responsible for determining the horizontal solar radiation with the aid of measurement data from silicon cells, which can be used to improve local weather and PV forecasts. Using selected application examples, Fraunhofer IEE demonstrated and investigated the use of improved PV forecasts for grid operation in distribution grids.


Selected Publications:

  1. M. Kraiczy, B. Mey, H. Becker, S. Drauz, R. Fritz, S. Wende v. Berg, M. Braun, P. Hofbauer, B. Rindt: PV Forecasting in Distribution System Operation – Requirements and Applications, 9th Solar Integration Workshop, Dublin, 2019.
  2. A. Altayara, M. Kraiczy, F. Wenderoth, K. Winter, P. Hofbauer, S. Meilinger, M. Braun: Techno-economic Assessment of PV Forecast Accuracy for a Predictive Congestion Management at the Distribution Level, CIRED 2021 Conference, Paper 940, Online, 2021.
  3. M. Kraiczy, A. Altayara, F. Wenderoth, K. Winter, P. Hofbauer, S. Meilinger, M. Braun: Benefits of advanced PV power forecasts for congestion management and reactive power management at the distribution level, VDE-ETG Kongress 2021, Online, 2021.