Heat pumps study

Growing Grid Load Due to the Ramp‑Up of Heat Pumps

With the expected ramp‑up of heat pumps and other electrical loads as part of the energy transition, the total load on the power grid will increase. Grid operators must account for this development in their grid planning. When assessing the impact of heat pumps on the power system, it is important to distinguish between the operating behavior of individual heat pumps and that of a large pool of units. Although heat pumps used for space heating are primarily influenced by outdoor temperature in their operation and power consumption, individual systems can exhibit very different operating states. For a pool of heat pumps, however, averaging effects typically occur, resulting in characteristic daily load profiles. Averaging also affects peak demand and can be described using simultaneity factors or simultaneity functions.

Data‑Driven Analysis of Operating Behavior in Munich

In future heat pump operation, it is expected that a certain number of customers will respond to external signals – such as dynamic electricity tariffs or dynamic grid charges – which will alter the operating behavior of both individual installations and large heat pump pools within a grid area.

Flexibility Assessment Through Simulation of Future Operating Modes

In the present study, the key factors influencing the operating behavior of heat pumps were identified using several years of operating and monitoring data, enabling the derivation of temperature‑dependent daily load curves. Using simulation models calibrated to the measurement data, these load curves were adapted to the specific conditions of the Munich urban area, and simultaneity functions for the climatic region were determined.