Research Project WAERMER

Extensive and accelerated electrification of heat supply in buildings is recognized as an urgently needed response to the current gas crisis. Against the background of Germany's climate goals in the building sector, technically detailed, cost-optimal energy system designs for urban or regional heating transitions are determined with the help of high-resolution energy system models. However, the installation rates of renewable decentralized heat generators (such as heat pumps) determined by these analyzes require collective and targeted investments from different groups of actors, such as infrastructure planners, private building owners or installation companies. The driving and inhibiting factors of the diffusion dynamics within the groups of actors are currently hardly reflected in the techno-economic models.

This requires, on the one hand, social scientific analyzes of the networks involved institutional and economic actors and, on the other hand, psychological surveys necessary.

Agent-based simulation models can add value to such empirical results by realistically depicting the actors, their interactions, their acceptance and the resulting complex dynamics. In particular, the coupling of agent-based simulation with system optimization enables qualitative impact assessments of accompanying and incentive measures and can thus make important contributions to overcoming the obstacles.

The process integrates the following models and procedures:

Energy Systems Model (ESM):

• Quantification of target systems and decision spaces
• Quantitative determination of expansion paths
• Interactive use in dialog formats

Decision Theater (DT):

• Structured integrating dialog formats
• Discussion of target systems and measures
• Evaluation of (simulated) alternatives
  

Agentenbasierte Modellierung (ABM):

• Mapping of individual investment decisions based on social-scientific-psychological empiricism
• Impact assessment of supporting measures
• Integration into the ESM objective function
  

Expected Results:

• Integrated simulation of the agents and the municipal energy system to evaluate alternative courses of action in the decision-making space
• Tried-and-tested method for integrating empirically based, simulation-validated alternative courses of action into stakeholder discourses
• Identification of obstacles to the implementation of the heat transition at the local level
• Consolidated action plan to achieve municipal climate protection goals in relation to on the heat sector Energy System Model (ESM) and Quantification of the target systems and Decision spaces
• Quantitative determination of expansion paths
• Interactive use in dialogue formats Decision Theater (DT) and Structured integrating dialogue formats
• Discussion of target systems and measures
• Evaluation of the (simulated) alternative courses of action Agent-based modeling (ABM) and Representation of individual investment decisions based on social-scientific-psychological empiricism
• Impact assessment of supporting measures
• Integration into the objective function of the ESM