Wind and Solar Power Forecasting

In order to achieve climate targets, we need to restructure our energy system. For this reason, more and more installed generation capacity is coming from renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaics. This makes our energy system highly weather dependent.

As a result of years of research and project experience with grid operators and electricity traders, Fraunhofer IEE provides high-quality power forecasts and forecast models, for optimal decisions in your energy management processes.

We offer our assistance with regards to any questions regarding the creation and use of wind and solar power forecasts, evaluations or the development of your own forecasting system. Together we can enable the planning and control of your energy management application!

Maximal Quality and Reliability of Our Energy Forecasts

As experts in energy meteorology, we know the requirements of the energy industry as well as the possibilities and limitations of weather forecasts. We aim to identify optimal solutions based on the available data. We analyse, both for you and with you, weather and its influence on your processes and applications.

Our forecasting-solution-highlights are based on decades of project experience accumulated by our development teams: We therefore understand the intelligent combination of AI methods, statistical optimizations & physical modelling.

Your applications benefit most from the use of up-to-date measured values & statuses. We deliberately use models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Their individual advantages and strengths let us provide you with optimal forecasting quality. Our scalable forecasting systems actively tackle larger plant portfolios across more than ten thousand locations. This way not only do we obtain a great mix, but the best of the available weather models.

The Essential Building Blocks

An essential component of the IEE forecasting system is the availability of current weather data. Our GribEx-module handles the usual .grib format, but also extracts other established exchange formats.

GribEx
Optimized park forecasts and grid forecasts
Flexible and optimized aggregation to grid or balancing areas
Differentiation of supply/possible feed-in & actual feed-in
Forecast of grid operator behavior for direct marketers
Forecast of direct marketer behavior for grid operators
Forecast of consumer behavior for grid operators and direct marketers
Adaptive combination of weather models for your target variable
Forecasts of redispatch-operations
Consideration of solar eclipse & Saharan dust
High-performance modules
Certified according to ISO27001

Park forecasts can be optimized based on available historical measurement data. For this purpose, we use both physical models and machine learning methods such as Extreme Learning Machines (ELM) or Transfer Learning. In addition, a forecast for the target quantity (billing values and metered values) is specially post-optimized to further minimize deviations and errors. Grid areas and balancing areas are thus optimally aggregated. Alternatively, approaches such as calibrated grid forecasts are available for maximum flexibility.

Feed-in forecasts are no longer just weather-dependent. In addition to our expertise in energy meteorology, we also know how to apply our experience in grid operation, direct marketing and consumption to optimize forecasts and thus significantly reduce uncertainties thereof. Our system can also detect and forecast deviations such as feed-in management and re-dispatch operations.

Furthermore, we know how to deal with extreme events, be it rare solar eclipses or Sahara dust storms, thanks to the vast knowledge gained over the years.

Our high-performance modules take into account technological limits and allow for very well scalable solutions. We pride ourselves in working professionally in an ISO27001 certified environment, ensuring that you can have complete confidence in the security of your information and your applications.

Our Services

Independent consulting on forecasting solutions
Development of forecasting modules for your software systems
Delivery of ready-to-use performance forecasts via sftp or REST API
Flexible options for forecast testing by means of online benchmarking or backtesting

As a research institute, we can consult you with a proficient overview of established industry solutions and find the right forecasting solution for your applications.

We complement your individual software environment with optimized forecasting modules in established programming languages and frameworks according to your needs.

As an alternative to on-premise or on-site forecasting, we are happy to provide you with our forecast-as-a-service from our 24/7 operational forecasting system using modern and robust communication channels such as sftp or Rest-API.

Suitable forecasting solutions for your applications are difficult to find based on websites or product presentations. Play it "safe" and test really close to your application. Our systems are suitable for realistic online benchmarks as well as the long-term review of forecasts of the last years in backtesting.

Your Advantages

Optimal marketing of expected power generation
Secure grid operation even with highly volatile capacity
Maximum self-sufficiency by adapting your flexibilities to our forecasts
Reliable marketing of regional feed-in from wind and PV
High-quality grid condition forecasts
Reliable price forecasts in markets of increasing price fluctuations

Our forecasts provide you with reliable information on the expected power output, for example for the optimal marketing of the energy volumes generated.Our forecasts enable you to operate your grids, overhead power lines, and transformers in substations safely, robustly, and resiliently, even with highly volatile generation capacity from wind and solar.

By adapting your flexibilities to our forecasts, you achieve maximum self-sufficiency, as well as a high degree of self-sufficiency, low CO2 balances and favorable electricity costs.

Reliable and optimized marketing of feed-in from wind farms and solar parks succeeds with our forecasts for your grid area or your plant portfolio. This way you maximize your yield in EEG marketing, direct marketing and PPA.

Certified Information Security Management System

If you decide to work with us, you can be sure that your data is in safe hands. The protection of sensitive information and the development of secure software are a must for us and an integral part of our work. Thus, our information security management system is certified by DQS GmbH according to DIN EN ISO / IEC 27001 : 2017. Regular internal and external audits guarantee a high standard.